A Series of Draws at the 2026 World Cup: Anomaly or New Norm?

The 2026 World Cup showed surprising results with a fairly high number of drawn matches. To date, nine of the 24 matches have ended without a winner, bringing the draw ratio to 37.5 percent. This is much higher compared to the average draw in the group stages of previous World Cups, which was only around 25 percent from 1998 to 2022.

The match between Spain and Cape Verde which ended 0-0 in Atlanta is a clear example of a disappointing result, especially for bettors who were hoping for a win for the favorite team. Johnny Avello, DraftKings sportsbook director, noted that typically only 5 to 7 percent of total pre-game bets are placed on the draw, but this percentage can increase to 20 to 25 percent for live bets during the game.

"As bettors feel the flow of the game and time is running out, they may see opportunities for the underdogs to perform well," explained Avello while observing Portugal's match against the Democratic Republic of Congo, which also ended in a 1-1 draw.

The challenge in determining whether this high number of draws is due to a small sample size, teams still adapting to the tournament, or more conservative tactical decisions is important. With two-thirds of teams set to progress to the knockout stages, playing it safe and securing a point may be wiser than a high-risk approach.

The ratio of draws in opening matches in the 32 team era is lower (25 percent) compared to the 24 team era. In 1982 to 1994, two-thirds of teams advanced from the group stage like this year, with 31.2 percent of opening games ending in a draw, indicating that the current year's trend is still above average.

Spain coach Luis de la Fuente responded to the draw calmly, stating that his team remained reliable despite a number of criticisms. "Today we recorded 32 matches without defeat," he said. Meanwhile, Uruguay coach Marcelo Bielsa expressed dissatisfaction after the 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia, insisting they should have won.

Four matches that ended in a draw on the same day (including Egypt-Belgium and Iran-New Zealand) did not encourage bettors to be more confident the next day. Avello added that a draw is less desirable for casual bettors, as they are more likely to back the favorite team to win.

Despite this, some professional bettors see opportunities in choosing a draw. Avello emphasized, "You actually already won the game before it even started," providing a positive perspective on the situation.